Waiting for important US Labour market report today | IFCM
IFC Markets Online CFD Broker

Waiting for important US Labour market report today - 4.9.2015

On Thursday the trade in the global stock markets was oppositely directed. Investors expect the important report on the US labour market to be released today at 14:30 CET. The Dollar Index is retracing down after the two-days growth encouraged by the yesterday’s news on the contracted trade balance deficit in July. The market participants believe that the forthcoming nonfarm payrolls being at least as strong as expected (+220,000 jobs) increase the probability of the rate hike on the Federal Reserve meeting September 17. Now the estimated probability is 28%. The trade volume on the US stock exchanges was 7.1 bln. shares yesterday which is 16.5% lower than the weekly average.

The European stocks are being in decline. The FTSEurofirst 300 sank 1.3%. Today in the morning the negative data on the contracted factory orders in July in Germany and the EU retail PMI in August were released. The Euro fell on the ECB head Mario Draghi’s statement about the possible further monetary emission for the ongoing bond-buying program of 1 trn. Euros after the 2016. However, the deflationary risk persists in Europe and the GDP outlook for this year was revised down to 1.4% from the previous 1.5%. In the UK the shares of Next (-3,5%) and Dixons Carphone (-3%) declined when the Exane BNP Paribas Investment bank revised down its recommendations for them. The Goldman Sachs investment bank revised down its recommendations for Kering shares and they became more than 4% cheaper. Today no other significant macroeconomic statistics is expected from the EU.

nikkei-chart-daily

This week the Nikkei index plunged reaching the 7-month low and showing the biggest decline in 1.5 years. We did not see any particularly negative news from Japan. The Yen continued strengthening and is considered to be a “haven” currency. The investors may be concerned by the slowdown in the Chinese economy that may have a negative influence on the South-Eastern Asia. According to the Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the foreign investors have sold in a week the Japanese shares for the value of 707 trn. Yens ($5,9 bln.) which is the record high since March 2014. Presently the Nikkei Index has one of the lowest P/E ratios (P/E = 14) among the world indices.

The oil prices growth stopped on the ECB statement about the deflationary risks in the Eurozone and the downgraded GDP growth outlook. The market participants are waiting for the weekly data on the working number of drilling rigs in the US to be announced today at 19:00 CET. The BNP Paribas Bank has lowered its forecast for the Brent average price for 2015 to $56 from $62 and for 2016 to $76 from $62. The Barclays Bank acted in the same way expecting the average Brent price to be $55 this year and $63 in 2016 which is $5 lower than the previous estimate.

Yesterday the Copper quotes were on the increase after the Indonesian department the of US Freeport-McMoran company reported the Copper export contraction in August due to the new payment rules. The number of vessels shipping the Copper ore from Indonesia has decreased from 6 to 2 a month.

gold-chart-daily

The physical gold in India is traded with a discount this week for the first time since the mid-July. The price varies from $0,5 to $4 per ounce while a week ago the gold traded with a premium of $0,7-1,5 per ounce. The goldsmiths are concerned by the weaker demand caused by severe drought. The two thirds of the gold in India is acquired by the farmers and the country-falks. Please, bear in mind that the Chinese stock exchanges are closed on Thursday and Friday due to the public holidays.

sugar-chart-daily

Yesterday the sugar quotes grew at the quickest daily pace in a year due to the possible weather deterioration in the countries being the main producers: in Brazil due to the heavy rains risk and in India due to the drought risk given El Nino effects. That has slightly pushed the Coffee prices up.
IFCM Trading Academy - New era in Forex education
Pass Your Course:
  • Get Certificate
trading academy

See Also

image
Follow the Market with Our Live Tools and Calendars
Close support
Call to Skype Call to WhatsApp Call to telegram Call Back Call to messenger