Fed rate hike caused downtrend correction of dollar | IFCM ジャパン
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Fed rate hike caused downtrend correction of dollar

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    2023/02/27
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Last week the US dollar index markedly dropped, while the US stocks remained almost unchanged. On Monday and Tuesday, no significant economic data came out. The change in stock indices was minimal. The dollar strengthened slightly on the Fed rate hike expectations. The next meeting of the US regulator took place on Wednesday without any surprises. The previous day, the likelihood of the Fed rate hike reached 95% and it, indeed was raised by 25 basis points, as expected. Currently, the new level of the Fed funds target rate amounts to 0.875%. The rate hike triggered the downward correction of the dollar index, which had previously increased in anticipation of this event. As traders’ well-known saying goes “Buy rumors, sell facts”. It means, that the movement of markets anticipating the event often changes into the opposite direction, when that event actually happens.

An additional negative for the US dollar was the marked strengthening of the euro and the Swiss franc in the wake of the results of the Dutch parliamentary elections. They also took place on Wednesday. Investors reacted positively to the loss of the far-right Freedom party, which favored the Netherlands’ exit from the EU. The election was won by the moderate People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Market participants assume that the French presidential elections will have a similar scenario at the end of April. The chances of victory of the National front party leader Marin Le Pen have significantly decreased which pushed the euro up.

In its turn, the economic statistics published in the US appeared to be negative. The inflation for February exceeded the Fed targeted level year-over-year and reached 2.7%. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen reported that the upcoming rate hike will be gradual. Previously it was assumed that this year it may be increased two times more. On Wednesday, the US stock indices rose due to the energy stocks. They advanced amid higher oil prices for the first time in the week. However, on Thursday and Friday, the stock indices declined anyway. This determined their neutral trend for the week.

The weakening of the US dollar continued on Thursday despite the positive data on the US real estate market for February. On Friday, it slightly corrected up due to the positive Michigan University Consumer Confidence index for March.

Few US statistics will come out this week. The publication of the durable goods orders data on Friday, as well as the real estate market data on Wednesday and Thursday may be noted. The main event of the week may become the speech of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, as well as the speeches of the Fed regional presidents on other days.

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