GBP/USD Teknik Analiz - GBP/USD Ticaret: 2014-09-25

Mark Carney’s speech: suspense maintained

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 16:40 CET we expect the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney at the conference concerning loans in Wales. New signals on the bank’s monetary policy are to be received. We suppose that major investor would also react to this event. At the last Carney’s speech he suggested the possibility of the base interest rate being increased. If we do not get the confirmation of these intentions today, the British currency can be expected to weaken. Today we are looking forward to an additional volatility momentum of the British pound against other liquid currencies.

Here we consider the H4 price chart of the GBP/USD currency pair. At the moment the price is moving within the D1 downtrend channel. It is important to mention the downward breach of the H4 trend line, it was confirmed by RSI-Bars oscillator movement (circled in red ellipse). The indicator signal left the growing channel area and broke downward the support line. The current price trend is also confirmed by Donchian Channel(13) bias and Parabolic values, which move along the daily trend line. The price has already breached the fractal support. We will expect the bearish sentiment to keep steady, if an intersection of a local trough occurs at 1.62719. This mark can be used to place a pending sell order. The initial Stop Loss can be placed at 1.64136; this mark is strengthened by Parabolic historical values and Donchian Channel upper boundary.

After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal peak. Updating is enough to be done every day after the formation of 5 new H4 candlesticks, needed for the Bill Williams fractal formation. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position	Sell
Sell stop	below 1.62719
Stop loss	above 1.64136

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