The US orange crop may decline for the 2nd year in a row
Technical Analysis Summary Pomerančový džus: Buy
| Indicator | VALUE | Signal |
| RSI | Neutrální | |
| MACD | Neutrální | |
| MA(200) | Neutrální | |
| Fractals | Neutrální | |
| Parabolic SAR | Buy | |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutrální |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, ORANGE: D1 formed a Triangle and is moving towards the upper border of a wide neutral range. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish move if ORANGE rises above the Triangle resistance line, 200-day moving average and upper Bollinger band: 117.5. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss below the Parabolic signal and the lower border of the neutral range: 107.5. After opening a pending order, we can move the stop loss to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and place a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (107.5) without activating the order (117.5), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that have not been taken into account.
Fundamentální analýza -
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for the US orange crop. Will the ORANGE quotes grow ?
The USDA now expects the US orange harvest to amount to 4.45 million tons in the 2020/2021 agricultural season. This is 4% less than the previous estimate and 15% less than in the 2019/2020 season. At the same time, the orange crop in Florida may decrease by 23%, in California - by 4%, and in Texas - by 22%. Recall that in the previous 2019/2020 season, the orange harvest decreased by almost 4% compared to the 2018/2019 season. Thus, the negative dynamics may last for 2 seasons in a row. US stocks of frozen orange juice concentrate in February this year were 16% lower than in February 2020.