#C-COFFEE forecast bearish despite lower Brazil crop estimates
Technical Analysis Summary Arabica-Kaffee: Sell
| Indicator | VALUE | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral | |
| MACD | Sell | |
| Donchian Channel | Sell | |
| MA(200) | Buy | |
| Fractals | Sell | |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell | |
| Fibonacci | Buy |
Chart Analysis
The #C-COFFEE technical analysis of the price chart in daily timeframe shows #C-COFFEE,Daily has breached below a support line above the 200-day moving average MA(200) and is close to testing the Fibonacci 38.2 support level. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the Fibonacci 38.2 support level at 150.15. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above the last fractal high at 162.14. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic indicator signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (162.14) without reaching the order (150.15), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamentale Analyse -
Brazil’s coffee crop is expected to be lower. Will the COFFEE price reverse its retreating?
Brazil's Paraná Basin, which is home to Minas Gerais, the country's biggest coffee producing state, has been hit with a drought that forecasters expect to continue through August, according to a recent commodities report from Commerzbank. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for around one-third of the world’s coffee. 2021 was anticipated to be a strong year for Brazilian coffee producers, but the drought has negatively impacted yields of many farms. And the International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates in its May Coffee Market Report that while world coffee consumption is increasing, it remains 1.2% below world production. However, with prospects of lower production in Brazil for coffee year 2021/22 and the reductions in other countries, world consumption is likely to exceed world production in coffee year 2021/22. Expectations of lower coffee crop are bullish for coffee price. Nevertheless the current technical setup is bearish for coffee price.