Weekly Outlook 5 - 9 April | IFCM
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Central banks minutes, IMF meeting and service sector in focus

The coming week will start with Easter Holiday in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand and Public Holiday in China, as last week finished with Holiday in most markets worldwide. However, in the remaining days, we have good enough data to take care of and count it as an important week. FED and ECB meeting minutes, RBA interest rate decision, Service PMI, and the fate of Biden's massive infrastructure plan in congress will get more attention, as many market participants are waiting to see if stock markets that got boosted from Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report will continue the rally or no.

FED, ECB, and RBA!

FED is to publish its latest meeting minutes in March on Wednesday, and ECB will release on Thursday, while RBA Rate Statement and Interest Rate decision will be on Tuesday, the first working day of the week in Australia.

For Federal Reserve meeting minutes, investors are looking to see any updates and outlook about inflation. The concerns about unprecedented stimulus and uncertain levels for the increase in prices are growing like never before. Even though Mr. Powell and many FOMC members used to do not consider the issue so important as investors do, it will still be in focus.

While U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note finished the week with 44bp higher above 1.72%, many analysts are worrying that maybe markets are pricing much more than it must be in faster recovery, bringing the 2024 expectation to 2023 or even earlier, on behind of optimism over upgraded FED economic forecasts, after newly fiscal stimulus, Biden's massive plans, and fast-moving vaccination program. In this report, we have to see more information about discussions by FOMC members and their updated and more detailed comments on rates rises in 2023, like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic earlier last week told that if the data supports, they may start raising the rate later 2023, even if it is still the idea of minority, the meeting minutes will put the light on what voting we have to wait for on subsequent decisions.

Mrs. Laggard seemed very determined in her interview with Bloomberg when she said that investors could test the bank's willingness to rein in rising borrowing costs "as much as they want." However, we are not waiting for any surprise at the ECB meeting minute.

Before ECB and FED, RBA will have its interest rate decision and statement on Tuesday. After an unexpected Q.E. program extending in the previous meeting in February, any new policy or change is not expected, none in its 0.10% Interest rates.

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Global Services PMIs

US and Japan on Monday, China on Tuesday, and Canada with European due to realize their Service PMI on Wednesday.

Among the largest economies, the U.S. had the best service sector recovery, and then China, while the rest, still suffering under 50-level.

In Europe, the British planning to start easing the lockdown, in Germany, Spain, and Italy, the new round of restrictions has begun, which most probably must be effected more on the service sector to continue divergence with the manufacturing industry. In the U.K., Non-essential retail reopens after 12 April, with Restaurants and pubs for outdoor services. Positive vaccination progress helped the U.K. and the U.S. again hope for faster recovery, but concerns about vaccination and lockdowns in E.Z. still exist.

IMF meeting

IMF virtual meeting on Monday is where we are waiting to see the latest updates from policymakers on economic recoveries. At the same time, IMP managing director Mrs. Kristalina Georgieva is optimistic about faster recovery. Aside from economic outlooks, Wednesday, the G20 finance minister also will meet to discuss debt relief initiatives.

Important speeches!

FED chair Jerome Powell is due to speak about the "Global Economy" on the IMF panel on Thursday, which will be watched closely by market participants. We have to follow the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's speech on Monday, where she will speak about "Global economic recovery from the pandemic" at a webinar hosted by the Chicago Council.

Employment, PPI, and Oil inventories.

U.S. and China will publish the CPI and PPI data on Friday. Numbers will be watched closely by investors as larger economies will make a more straightforward recovery path, especially now, when many investors are worried about the higher Yields and its effects on producing prices. The U.S. Initial Jobless claim after upbeat numbers of NFP on Friday will still be substantial. Friday also, we are waiting to see the Canadian Employment Change in March, as well. And finally, Oil inventories data for every Tuesday from API and Wednesday from EIA will be watched by Energy investors and traders.

Source: https://tradeproskills.com

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11/09/23

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