Q1 corporate reporting season starts in the US - 7.4.2021

On Tuesday, the US dollar index dropped for the 2nd day in a row. The main reason for this was the large-scale economic stimulus plans proposed by the new US President Joe Biden. Total flows to the American economy could reach $4 trillion. In the 1st quarter of 2021, the US dollar index showed maximum quarterly growth in 3 years, which amounted to +3.6%. Now, it is correcting. Investors are trying to predict the onset of the Fed monetary tightening. According to various estimates, the first Fed rate hike may take place either at the end of 2022 or in 2024. Today, the March FOMC Minutes will be published, which may affect the rate of the greenback. In addition, the trade balance for February will be released. Yesterday, no significant economic statistics were published in the US. The Swiss franc is now strengthening for the third day in a row, responding to positive economic data released last week. The Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly updated its 10-year high in March. Prior to this, the KOF economic forecast indicator also showed strong growth in March.

On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market declined, with no particularly negative news. However, stock indices are already close to historic highs. Investors are in no rush to buy stocks ahead of the Q1  corporate reporting season start. Refintiv predicts that the total profits of the S&P500 companies will increase by 24.2% compared to the 1st quarter of 2020. At the same time, the growth of the S&P500 index itself over the same period of 12 months has already amounted to 52%. Such a discrepancy between the increase in total profits and capitalization can create risks for investors. A cruise travel company Carnival Corp will report today.

World oil prices today are almost unchanged for the second day in a row. They are supported by the decision of the International Monetary Fund to increase the forecast for world GDP growth this year to 6%, a peak since the 1970s. In theory, the recovery of the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic will lead to higher oil demand. So far, the pandemic is not going to stop. The number of cases worldwide has continued to increase for the 6th week in a row, despite the development and use of vaccines. This negatively affects oil prices. The independent American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.62 million barrel decline in oil reserves in the United States over the week. Official data on stockpiles will be released today. U.S. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a decline in US oil production in 2021 by 270 thousand barrels per day (bpd) to 11.04 million bpd. These positive factors for quotations were offset by expectations of increased oil production in Iran. The United States extended the sanctions but announced readiness to ease them.