U.S. stocks rose on Friday and European stocks dropped


There was no sharp trend observed in the world stock market on Friday. The trade surplus of the Eurozone in April was lower than expected, less than in March, and reached 15.7 billion Euro. We believe that some investors closed short positions on the U.S. exchanges on the last day of the week. This has supported American quotes.

Moreover, an additional small positive for the markets came from the U.S. President, Barack Obama, saying that he was not going to send troops to Iraq, where the fighting was intensified. Investors believe that entering the conflict may entail a substantial increase in the budget spending. The economic data in the United States on Friday were negative and there was no specific reason for the upside movement. The producer prices in May decreased by 0.2%, worse than expected. Theoretically, it can reduce the corporate income. However, most of the investors agreed that the decline in producer prices is a normal correction after their strong growth in March - April. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in June totaled 81.2 points and has also proved to be weaker than the preliminary forecasts (82.5). Today, we expect the U.S. Empire Manufacturing for June, coming out at 12-30 CET. We believe that it has got a negative outlook. Next at 13-15 and 14-00 CET we will see the industrial production data for May and the real estate index from the National Construction Association (NAHB). The projections, in our opinion, are positive. We believe that there will be no particularly strong movements in the stock market today. As investors are likely to decide to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where the next decline in redemption of government bonds (QE3) could happen.

DJI, Daily

This morning, the U.S. futures, Japanese Nikkei and European stocks are "in the red." In our opinion, the adverse impact is coming from the hostilities in Iraq, as well as reduction of the shares of transport companies on the background of the higher Oil prices. Today, we will see the EZ inflation data for May (second reading) released at 9-00 CET. According to the forecasts, it is not going to change, compared to the first reading and will be at 0.5%. Note that the P/E figure for the Stoxx Europe 600 reached its highest level since 2002 and making 17.5 points. This is 26% above the 10-year P/E average. However, the forecast for the second quarter is much lower, only 14.6 points. Investors expect very positive statements from European companies in the second quarter. Note that in the first quarter the reports of 241 companies were brought, including the Stoxx Europe 600. Among them, 48% of the profit was below the analysts' forecasts. Ten percent of the corporate income was in line with expectations, and 42% exceeded them. Usually there is the opposite situation observed, when the profit exceeds 48% analytical forecasts. Weak accountability may be a risky factor for investing in European stocks.


As it was expected, the grain futures grew slightly after the USDA key report. Even despite the fact, that it was negative for them. Meanwhile, the American Meteorological Agency, WeatherBell Analytics and MDA Information Systems suggested that the weather in the U.S. may be too rainy. This can damage the grain harvest in Oklahoma and other areas of the Great Plains. Australia does not preclude the reduction in the wheat crop forecast, standing now at 24.6 million tons in case of the negative impact by El Niño.

цены на какао

Côte d'Ivoire reported an increase in the purchasing Cocoa prices from farmers by 12% to $1.74 per kg.. The beans peaked at 33-month high, with increased demand for chocolate. The Mars Foods company forecasts or annual growth of global consumption are at 3% within three years mainly due to Asia. The International Cocoa Organization expects the cocoa deficit of 75 thousand tons due to lower crop in Indonesia, 35% is associated with illnesses of chocolate trees in the current season.


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