Technical Analysis AUDUSD : 2014-02-18

Good afternoon, dear traders. After yesterday's bank holiday in the United States commemorating the President's Day, the market returns to a state of active trading U.S. currency. We continue to expect the key macroeconomic events. Recall that today at 14:00 (CET, server time) traders are looking for an entry point after the publication of net purchases of U.S. securities (TIC Long-Term Purchases). This indicator is issued by the Ministry of Finance once a month and reflects the dynamics of the long investment in the American economy. If the actual value is below the projected level (28.9 B), then we should expect a weakening of the U.S. currency. Note that exactly in an hour the index of business optimism in the residential construction sector (NAHB Housing Market Index) is coming out. This statistical coefficient is released the National Association of Home Builders and it allows to assess the situation with the current and projected home sales. Despite the limited impact of this news on the U.S. economy we should take the market volatility the publication into account.

Here we can see how the technical situation has changed for Australian Dollar in 24 hrs – see yesterday technical analysis . In fact, the price drifted inside the triangle, the top of which indicates the most likely subsequent movement. The H4 upward trend is confirmed by the ParabolicSAR, but for quitting the triangle confedently, we need the breakеthrough at 63.70968 by the RSI(14). We expect that this to happen in case of crossing the resistance at 0.90810 and simultaneous crossing the upper side of the triangle. The next sustainable level will be located at 0.91134. Risk is limited at the historical minimum (0.90123), which is confirmed by the first Pivot support.
It is recommended to place a pending order to buy above 0.90810, 15 minutes before the Long-Term Purchases. The order should be kept only if the macroeconomic indicator falls below the projected level of 28.9 B. When you open your position, the stop loss should be moved according to the ParabolicSAR. Note that in any case, the position should be kept not longer than an hour, as at 15:00 (CET, server time) index of business optimism in the residential construction sector is coming out. Conservative traders can switch the position into breakeven state or close it 15 minutes prior to the release of this figure. Recall that you can set the time of forced closing of the position by using the server timer.

Position openingabove 0.90810
Targetbelow 0.91134
Preliminary stop lossbelow 0.90123

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