Strong economic data bullish for Australian dollar
Australian economic data were strong recently. Will the AUDUSD rebound?
The Reserve Bank of Australia held the interest rate at 1.5% for the thirteenth month at its October 5 policy meeting. Since then Australian economic data have largely been positive. Balance of trade rose in August to 0.99 billion Australian dollars from 0.81 billion in previous month as exports rose 1% while imports remained steady. At the same time business confidence improved in September and consumer confidence rose sharply in October. Improving data point to continued strength of Australian economy after GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter.
On the daily timeframe AUDUSD: D1 is retracing higher after decline following the seventeen-month high in the beginning of September. The price has fallen below the 50-day moving average MA(50).
- The Donchian channel indicates downtrend: it is tilted down.
- The Parabolic indicator gives a buy signal.
- The MACD indicator is below the signal line and the gap is narrowing, which is a bullish signal.
- The stochastic oscillator is rising but hasn’t reached the overbought zone.
We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price closes above the MA(50)and the fractal high at 0.7875. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the fractal low at 0.7732. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (0.7732) without reaching the order (0.7875), we recommend cancelling the position: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Technical Analysis Summary
| Position | Buy |
| Buy stop | Above 0.7875 |
| Stop loss | Below 0.7732 |