Brazil's coffee crop may shrink
Technical Analysis Summary COFFEE: Buy
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
| RSI | Buy | |
| MACD | Buy | |
| MA(200) | Neutral | |
| Fractals | Buy | |
| Parabolic SAR | Buy | |
| Bollinger Bands | Buy |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COFFEE: D1 has exceeded the resistance line. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if COFFEE: D1 rises above its most recent high of 181. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal: 151. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (151) without activating the order (181), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of -
In Brazil, coffee production may shrink. Will COFFEE quotes continue to grow?
Volcafe reported weak coffee blossoms in the state of Minas Gerais and cut its forecast for Brazil's 2022/2023 arabica coffee crop to 40.5 million bags. The state of Minas Gerais produces 30% of Brazilian coffee. Last July, Volcafe expected Brazil's 2022/2023 arabica production to be much larger, at 49.8 million bags. Recall that earlier the Cecafe agency reported a decrease in green coffee exports from Brazil in 2022 by 2.7% y/y to 35.6 million bags. This is at least 4 years. The Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported an 8% y/y drop in coffee exports from the country in 2022 to 11.1 million bags. Colombia is the 2nd largest producer of Arabica coffee in the world after Brazil. The United States Department of Agriculture expects global coffee exports to fall by 3 million bags in 2022/2023 to 116.1 million bags.