Global coffee exports are forecast to decrease
Technical Analysis Summary COFFEE: Neutral
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral | |
| MACD | Sell | |
| MA(200) | Neutral | |
| Fractals | Neutral | |
| Parabolic SAR | Buy | |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COFFEE: D1 is in an uptrend and has approached the 200-day moving average line. It should be broken above before opening a long position. Several technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further upward movement. We do not exclude a bullish movement if COFFEE: D1 rises above the last fractal high, the 200-day moving average line, and the upper Bollinger Band: 194. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit can be placed below the Parabolic signal, the last fractal low, and the lower Bollinger Band: 174. After opening a pending order, the stop loss should be adjusted along with the Bollinger Band and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. This way, we adjust the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders can switch to the four-hour chart after executing the trade and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the movement. If the price surpasses the stop level (4.7) without activating the order (4.9), it is recommended to cancel the order: there are internal changes happening in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of -
Some countries have reduced coffee supplies to the global market. Will the rise in COFFEE quotes continue?
The agricultural agency Cecafe reported a 14% y/y decrease in green coffee exports from Brazil in April, amounting to 2.39 million bags. The Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported a 15% y/y reduction in coffee exports from Colombia in April, totaling 719,000 bags. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) stated that during the agricultural season of 2022/2023, from October to March, global coffee exports declined by 6.4% y/y, reaching 62.3 million bags. The Conab agency lowered its coffee crop forecast for 2023 to 54.7 million bags. In January, they had forecasted a crop of 54.9 million bags. Additionally, the coffee market may be influenced by the natural phenomenon El Niño. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimates a 94% likelihood of its formation from August to October of the current year.