Getting ready for the Bank of Poland meeting
Technical Analysis Summary EUR/PLN: Buy
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
| RSI | Buy | |
| MACD | Buy | |
| MA(200) | Neutral | |
| Fractals | Neutral | |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell | |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, EURPLN: D1 is trying to return to the long-term growing channel. Before opening a position, he must break up the 200-day moving average line. Some indicators of technical analysis have formed signals for a further increase. We do not rule out a bullish movement if EURPLN rises above the latest up fractal, Parabolic signal, upper Bollinger band and 200-day moving average line: 4.73. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap is possible below the last down fractal and lower Bollinger band: 4.64. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (4.64) without activating the order (4.73), it is recommended to delete the order: the market is undergoing internal changes that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of -
Bank of Poland may keep the rate. Will EURPLN quotes go up?
The next meeting of the Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP) will take place on December 7th. According to some forecasts, he can keep the rate at the current level of 6.75%, despite the relatively high inflation in November of 17.4% y/y. A relatively low rate can accelerate the growth of Polish GDP, but at the same time weaken the Polish zloty. In the 3rd quarter of 2022, it amounted to +3.6% y/y. This is the lowest level since Q3 2021, when GDP was negative (-2.5% y/y). ECB officials are expected to make speeches this week that could influence the dynamics of the euro. Recall that the meeting of the ECB will be held on December 15.