Technical Analysis EURUSD : 2014-02-11


Good afternoon! Today is an aggressive trader’s holiday. At 16:00 (CET, server time) those who are addicted to risk will expect the speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet Yellen. After the short half-yearly report, she will answer the questions, and maybe we will have new signals about the U.S. monetary policy. Note that an hour earlier we expect the report by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Charles Plosser at the University of Delaware. He is a member of the Open Market Committee with voting rights. Together, these two speeches can give a strong impetus to the market. Along with the Yellen’s speech we will find out about number of new jobs for the previous month, excluding farm sector - JOLTS Job Openings. If the information regarding the discount rate change is not received, we should listen to this indicator. The predicted value for it is 4.04 M.

Here we consider the technical analysis signals for the EUR/USD. The market is not sure about the large-scale movement direction - the price currently drifts within the intraday expanding triangle. Quitting this triangle can occur due to the breakthrough of a strong resistance level at 1.37393 and when the bullish trend returns. This is a major movement in our point view is possible in regard of Janet Yellen’s statements about further easing of monetary policy. In terms of technical indicators there are all the prerequisites for it. The ParabolicSAR confidently goes up, there is no controversy and from the RSI(14). The upward momentum should precede the breakthrough the overbought level 75.86207. This will indicate the beginning of a strong trend. Let us not forget about the daily uptrend.
On the other hand, in the absence of clear signals during the report by the Fed chief Charles Plosser, the speculative market will focus on the Job Openings. If the projected figure 4.04 M is exeeded then we could expected weakening of the currency pair. And although the movement is likely to insignificant, there are unambiguous opportunities of trading. The fact is that the Pivot support level coincides with the historical support. This creates good preconditions for the pending orders for sale. We recommend to place two orders of different directions 15 minutes before the Yellen’s speech - 1.37393 (buy) and 1.36178 (sell), respectively. The position should be kept according to the ParabolicSAR.

Directionup and down
Position opening above 1.37393 and below 1.36178
Targetbuy – 1.38793, sell – 1.35873
Preliminary stop loss buy – 1.34765, sell – 1.36768
Note

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