Euro: rest before starting
Good afternoon, dear traders. Today the Eurogroup meeting is taking place: the meeting of the finance ministers of 17 member states of the Eurozone, the ECB President and the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs. It is a private meeting. However, a brief report for the press may be presented after the meeting at the end of the day: the main issues discussed and conclusions. Since banks are closed for the holidays today in Canada, the USA and Japan, we expect the main volatility growth due to the changes in the EU fundamental situation. The reduced liquidity in the market allows selecting a good trading position in anticipation of tomorrow’s activity. The US Core Retail Sales and the UK Consumer Confidence index will be released tomorrow.
In light of the current fundamental situation, today we consider the EUR/USD behavior on the H4 chart. The monthly, daily and the emerging H4 trends are influenced by the bearish sentiment. The scale synchronization allows us to look for a short position, without fearing of having unpredictable retracements. At the moment, under the bearish pressure the price has crossed the lower boundary of DonchianChannel (13). Parabolic is moving along the limit of the supposed new H4 price channel, and therefore increasing the chances of further movement. The only alarming sign of the current trend weakening is the upward breach of the RSI-Bars resistance line. Despite this fact, we hope the breach to be false. The topping of a new trough of 38.3562% oscillator signal will help to confirm that.It is likely to happen simultaneously with the breach of the price support level at 1.26019. This mark can be used for placing sell order. We recommend conservative traders to place Stop Loss at 1.29977, which is above the H4 and D1 trend lines. In addition, this mark is confirmed by Parabolic historical values and DonchianChannel boundary.
| Position | Sell |
| Sell stop | below 1.26019 |
| Stop loss | above 1.29977 |
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