Better weather conditions could boost crops in Brazil
Technical Analysis Summary Orange Juice: Sell
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral | |
| MACD | Sell | |
| MA(200) | Neutral | |
| Fractals | Neutral | |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell | |
| Bollinger Bands | Sell |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, ORANGE: D1 broke down the uptrend support line. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further decline. We do not exclude a bearish movement if ORANGE: D1 falls below the last lower fractal and lower Bollinger band: 131.3. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the high since September 2018, the last 3 fractals tops, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 148.8. After opening a pending order, move the stop to the next fractal maximum following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (148.8) without activating the order (131.4), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of -
Brazil is experiencing favorable weather conditions. Will the ORANGE quotes continue to decline?
Somar Meteorologia expects the end of drought and moderate rainfall in Brazil. This could further increase citrus production there. In July, the U.S. The Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast an increase in the orange harvest in the 2020/2021 agricultural season in Brazil by 7% to 15.9 million tons. Now it can be clarified. Recall that the official forecast of the orange harvest in 2021 from the Brazilian Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento - Conab will be published on October 19. In a number of other countries, orange production is also expected, in particular in the EU by 5% to 6.5 million tons. Thanks to this, the global orange harvest may increase by 5.4% to 48.6 million tons. According to the USDA, this will not be prevented by a 12% cut in the US crop to 4.2 million tons. Orange juice production in the United States may decline this season by 18% to 245 thousand tons. However, this is unlikely to have a noticeable negative impact on the world market, since in Brazil the production of this juice is expected to grow by 18% to 1 million tons and in Mexico - 2 times to 200 thousand tons.