BRENT_RUB hitting lows over again
Today we would like to focus your attention to the daily chart of the Personal Composite Instrument BRENT_RUB (Brent crude oil/Russian ruble). In the first quarter of 2015 Russia’s oil exports rose 7.4% and hit the 9-year high, compared to the same period last year. The production growth was only 0.4%, up to 10.71 million barrels a day. Such kind of imbalance is caused by the fall in the Russian domestic demand for gasoline amid the economic crisis. Note that new car sales in Russia in the first quarter dropped approximately 40% and as for used cars – 25%. Last Friday crude oil price estimated in rubles tumbled to the lowest level of June 2012. We believe that the decrease in domestic demand is limited, and reaching this boundary, the sustainable stage should start. It is unlikely that oil exports will rise in the long-term amid the falling production. Since the Russian ruble rate and the oil price are highly correlated, as a rule, PCI BRENT_RUB is traded sideways most of the time. We don’t rule out a significant ruble movement after the press conference of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, which is to take place on April 16.
Let’s examine the daily chart of the BRENT/RUB: the price has slightly rebounded after reaching the support level at the previous low in mid-January 2015. It’s hard to say whether the retracement will result in the bullish movement or not, up to the level of its moving average (200). The RSI chart indicates a slight bullish divergence, but the bars have not yet broken its resistance level. We believe that it will coincide with the BRENT_RUB expected price growth. In this case MACD and Parabolic will generate buy signals. Only then we can consider the option of going long. We expect the development of the bullish momentum followed by the daily candlestick being closed above the downtrend resistance line and the next to last fractal high at 3234: this mark can be used for placing a pending buy order. Stop loss is to be placed at the lower Bollinger band, which can currently act as the support line at 2934. The most cautious traders can place Stop loss at the last fractal low 3040. After the pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every day at the next fractal low, following Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes which were not considered.
| Position | Buy |
| Buy stop | above 3234 |
| Stop loss | below 2934 or 3040 |