Technical Analysis USDCAD : 2014-03-11


Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 15:00 (CET) the number of jobs in the U.S. labor market will be released (JOLTS Job Openings). This index is published by the U.S. Department of Labor and includes the data collected over the past month. As the employment is one of the basic indicators of U.S. economy, we would expect an optimistic market reaction if it turns out above the expected level of 4,02 M.

Here we consider the USD/CAD behavior on the H4 chart. We have a rare divergence signal from the RSI-Bars (14) where the indicator signal line crossed the H4 resistance line. This is a rare outpacing signal of probable price movement upwards. The ParabolicSAR confirms the bullish momentum. The same can be said about the Pivot signal line. The price crossed it upwards, indicating a possible change in trend direction. Nevertheless, we see that the graphical analysis has not confirmed our hypothesis, so you should be extremely careful when opening a position.

We placed a pending buy order near the daily trend line (1.11589). Thus, its intersection will provide a confirmation of the bullish market from the graphical model. The order is recommended to be activated 15 minutes prior to the publication of JOLTS Job Openings and kept in case the actual value rises above the forecast level (4,02 M). Note that the price can also be raised on the news anticipation, because the previous index value was only 3,99 M that is 0,3 M lower than the current forecast. The target area is determined by the Fibonacci upper level (161.8%). But we would be careful and set the take profit level, taking into account the nearest high at 1.11927. The preliminary stop loss is confirmed by the first Pivot support level and the nearest low at 1.10903. As usual, while opening a position it is recommended to move its meaning towards the ParabolicSAR indicator signal.

Directionup
Position openingabove1,11589
Targetbelow 1.11927
Preliminary stopbelow 1.10903

Note

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