Technical Analysis USDCAD : 2014-03-26

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 13:30 (CET), we will find out about the U.S. (Core Durable Orders). The indicator is released by the U.S. Bureau of statistics and does not include the volatile transportation component. Changing the production incoming total orders allows us to estimate the potential returns from investments in the real sector of the U.S. economy. Thus, if the actual index value is below the projected level (0.3%), we should sell the USD.

Let us consider the USD/CAD on the H4 chart. The current trend is ruled by bears, as it is evidenced by the Parabolic SAR, because its values are located above the price trajectory. It is also worth to note that the price drifts below the Pivot signal line, confirming the falling trend continuation. There is no opposition observed from the RSI-Bars, on the contrary, we see the direction confirmation on the part of this indicator.

The stop loss is chosen according to the nearest high at 1.12100. The preliminary target is determined on the basis of the weekly support line. At the moment, this value corresponds to the level of 1.10829. Nevertheless, we recommend cautious traders to move the target up when opening a position according to the weekly support line. The probability of crossing it by the price is low, when there is no significant impetus appeared in the market. The stop loss is also recommended to be moved after the ParabolicSAR as soon as is crosses the preliminary stop level. The GTC is recommended to be open 15 minutes before the Core Durable Orders publication. We believe that the position should be closed immediately when the figure turns out higher than the projected level. This would mean that the trend has reversed and the market is experiencing fundamental changes which were not taken into account.

Position openingbelow 1.11202
Preliminary targetabove 1.10829
Preliminary stop lossabove 1.12100


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