Technical Analysis USDCAD : 2014-04-28

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 16:00 (CET, server time) we expect the U.S. real estate market data (Pending Home Sales m/m). This index is calculated by the National Association of Realtors and shows the change in the number of signed but not paid contracts over the last month. The indicator is a harbinger of new home sales and has a multiplicative effect on the financial sector (mortgage), secondary consumer goods (industry and trade) and high-tech goods (IT). If the index exceeds the predicted value of 1.0%, it is expected to fortify the U.S. currency.


Here we consider the H4 chart for the Canadian Dollar. The correction is completed in the area of the weekly uptrend line. The Parabolic SAR approached near the price and there is a high probability of reversal upwards. It is also worth to note the PivotPoints resistance false breakthrough. First time, the price has tested the resistance and the second time the pulse can be more intensive. We see that the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands channel, which is attached to the RSI-Bars oscillator, was also weakened.

It is recommended to place a buy GTC above the resistance at 1.10514, which coincides with the ParabolicSAR historical data and the first PivotPoints resistance. The order should be placed 15 minutes prior to the Pending Home Sales m/m publication and kept if the index turns out above the forecast of 1.0%. Traditionally, we set a target below the first Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Currently this level coincides with historical support level at 1.10668. The SL is selected according to the nearest resistance level around 1.10151. This is an advantageous position, because it is confirmed by the PivotPoints historical data. The SL is recommended to be moved after the parabolic values every 4 hours after the GTC is done. The position shold be kept until the preliminary UK GDP (Prelim GDP) comes out on 29.04.2014 at 10:30 CET. The position should be switched into a breakeven state 15 minutes prior to the data release. Optimally, the breakeven level is chosen at the ParabolicSAR historical level.

Position openingabove 1,10514
Preliminary targetbelow 1,10668
Preliminary stopbelow 1,10151


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