Technical Analysis USDJPY : 2014-04-30


Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) we expect the adjusted U.S. GDP (Advance GDP q/q). This indicator expresses changes in the GDP on an annualized basis, adjusted for inflation and published by the Economic Analysis Agency. The indicator reflects the quarterly data and has the greatest impact on long-term investors. The index is expected to fall from 2.6% to 1.2%, but if the actual value is above the projected level, we should expect the U.S. currency to strengthen.

USD/JPY

Here we consider the hourly chart of the USD/JPY. The price drifts within the area of the H4 and the D1 uptrend support lines. This increases the probability the bearish trend destruction. If we place a buy GTC around 102.668, then we will see the ParabolicSAR bullish reversal when it is triggered. Before that, we will wait for the breakthrough at 62.595 by the RSI-Bars and the Bollinger Bands channel reversal.

It is recommended to place a buy GTC 15 minutes before the Advance GDP q/q publication and keep it, in case the index turns out above the forecast of 1.2%. Traditionally, we define a target below the first Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Currently this level coincides with the historical resistance level at 102.775. The SL is selected according to the nearest support level around 102.279. This is an advantageous position, because it is confirmed by the historical data of the Parabolic SAR. The SL is recommended to move after the parabolic values every 4 hours after the GTC is done. The position should be maintained until the FOMC report publication at 20:00 CET. The position is switched into a breakeven state 15 minutes prior to the data release. The most optimal is to chose a breakeven level at the ParabolicSAR.

Directionup
Position openingabove 102,668
Preliminary targetbelow 102,775
Preliminary SLbelow 102,279

Note

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