Corporate earnings season starts in the US | IFCM ジャパン
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Corporate earnings season starts in the US

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Last week the dollar index continued rising, while the US stock prices slightly dropped. On Monday, weak data on car sales for March were released in the US. Because of this, the stocks of General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and Ford markedly declined. However, the overall decrease of the US stock indices was not so significant due to the positive ISM Manufacturing index. In March, it slightly declined from its record high in two and a half years. Another positive was the growth of construction expenses by 0.8% to the record high since April 2006. The dollar index was in a narrow neutral range at the beginning of the week.

On Tuesday, rather important data were published in the US: trade balance, manufacturing orders, and durable goods orders. However, they all came in line with the preliminary forecasts and did not impact the US market dynamics.

On Wednesday, the March Fed meeting minutes were released which caused a slump of stock indices. It turned out that the majority of the Fed presidents think it necessary to reduce the size of the Fed balance sheet which reached an immense amount of $4.5 trillion. After this, the yield of the US government bonds began to grow which had a negative impact on stock prices.

On Thursday, no significant economic data came out in the US. The stock indices slightly rose in anticipation of the meeting of the US president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Investors assumed that this would boost the cooperation between two countries. They also expected that the Chinese leader would make concessions in order to avoid trade war with the US. Due to this the dollar index showed a marked increase. An additional positive for the dollar was the statement by the ECB Chair Mario Draghi that he did not see any necessity to tighten the monetary policy. After that the euro exchange rate against the dollar slumped to a 3-week low.

On Friday, weak data on labor market for March came out in the US. However, the dollar index continued rising, while the stock indices remained almost unchanged. The number of Non-farm Payrolls in March was minimal since May of the last year. However, market participants decided that it was a result of bad weather conditions and snowfall, rather than worsening of the economic state. A significant positive for the dollar was the announcement by the New York Fed president William Dudley that the decrease of the Fed balance sheet would not cause a marked delay in the rate hike policy. Let us recall that currently investors are expecting a two more rate hikes in 2017. The likelihood of its occurring in June is estimated at about 61%.

This week the quarterly earnings season for Q1, 2017, will start in the US. The total earnings of the companies from the S&P500 list are expected to increase by 10.1% and the revenue-by 7%. Meanwhile, there will be few significant economic data. On Thursday, the consumer confidence index for April and on Friday the inflation and retail sales for March will be released.

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