ロブスタコーヒー テクニカル分析 - ロブスタコーヒー 取引：2018-12-26

World harvest forecasts may be excessively optimistic

Marex Spectron forecasts a global coffee deficit in the 2017/18 agricultural season in the amount of 1.7 million bags (60 kg). Will Robusta prices rise?

On the daily timeframe, Robusta: D1 remains in a downtrend. It has slowed down and a number of technical analysis indicators have formed buy signals. The further price correction is possible in case of a reduction in world harvest and an increase in demand.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
• The Bollinger bands are widening strongly, which indicates high volatility.
• The RSI indicator is below 50. No divergence.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case Robusta exceeds its last high and the 1st level of Fibonacci at 1540. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last fractal low and the Parabolic signal at 1460. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (1460) without reaching the order (1540), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis