USD/JPY テクニカル分析 - USD/JPY 取引：2015-10-05

Ending Yen flat

For more than a month the Yen has been moving sideways. On the one hand, investors feel the uncertainty due to the Asian economic slowdown and Chinese in particular. Such internal issues as faltering GDP growth at 1% a year and decreasing share of labour force persist in Japan. On the other hand, the attempts to stimulate the businesses and lending due to the low interest rate (<1%) are undertaken. The low energy prices are another growth factor. Are the credit support and the positive market trends enough for the economy to recover and the national currency to strengthen?

We believe the Japanese economy experiences the structural problems that cannot be solved by regulation. This means the Yen will face hard times. Today at 16-00 CET the ISM Manufacturing will be released in the US which can terminate the uncertainty with USD/JPY. The ISM Manufacturing is released monthly on the first trading day. It reflects the industrial purchasing managers’ opinion.

At the moment we see the ongoing bullish trend in USD/JPY on the weekly chart. In the meantime, the price is being localized in the triangle for more than a month which stands for the uncertainty. Besides, the RSI-Bars has left the trend channel and remains within the range. We expect the breakout of the 48% level to provoke the volatility momentum and the sharp growth of the currency pair. The signal is most likely to be accompanied by the breakout of the triangle. Please note, that the false breakout of the triangle failed to go down below the support at 118.675 which means this level cannot be used for placing risk limits.

We recommend opening the delayed order to buy after the RSI breaks through the 48% level. The aggressive traders may place the delayed order at 121.349 which is supported by the Bollinger Band. The risk limits shall be fixed at the level of the previous Bill Williams fractal low of 118.675 (downside of the triangle). This level served the support line of the Bollinger Bands till the trend weakening. The stop shall be moved daily to the next fractal low following the Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. Despite the high probability of this scenario, the currency pair may lose the bullish momentum. First of all, the risks come from the negative US statistics. Nevertheless, we believe the oscillator signal works out only in case the long-term fundamental trend is formed.