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EUR USD Technical Analysis - EUR USD Trading: 2023-05-15
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Summary
Below 1,085
Sell Stop
Above 1,112
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Sell |
| MACD | Sell |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Sell |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
| Bollinger Bands | Sell |
EUR/USD Chart Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, EURUSD: D1 has broken below the support line of the uptrend. Several technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further decline. We do not rule out bearish movement if EURUSD: D1 drops below its last minimum: 1.085. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible above the upper Bollinger band, the last upper fractal, and the Parabolic signal: 1.112. After opening a pending order, we move the stop loss along with the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we improve the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders can switch to the four-hour chart after making the trade and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. In case the price exceeds the stop level (1.112) without activating the order (1.085), the order should be deleted: internal changes are taking place in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Forex - EUR/USD
The U.S. The Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain a high level of interest rates. Will EURUSD quotes continue to decline?
Weak economic data has been released in the United States. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April fell to +2.3% y/y from 2.7% YoY in March, which was lower than expected. United States Initial Jobless Claims for the week rose to 264,000, the highest level since mid-January 2022. The preliminary University of Michigan United States Consumer Sentiment for May plummeted to a low not seen since November 2022, reaching 57.5 points. Against this backdrop, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining its high rate of 5.25% at its next meeting on June 14 has increased to 82.3%. A month ago, it was only 67%. The probability of the rate being maintained at the July 26 meeting has risen to 57.6%, up from 30.6% a month ago. The high Fed rate (5.25%) may support the value of the US dollar, which currently exceeds inflation (+4.9% YoY in April). It is worth noting that the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate is currently 3.75%, which is significantly lower than the preliminary inflation rate in the EU of +7% y/y in April. The final value of inflation in the EU for April will be released on May 17.
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