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USD PLN Technical Analysis - USD PLN Trading: 2022-04-06
USD/PLN Technical Analysis Summary
Above 4,27
Buy Stop
Below 4,05
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Sell |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Neutral |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
USD/PLN Chart Analysis
USD/PLN Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, USDPLN: D1 has maintained a long-term uptrend and exited the downward channel upwards. Indicators of technical analysis have not yet formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if USDPLN: D1 rises above its latest high and the Parabolic signal: 4.27. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap is possible below the latest down fractal, 200-day moving average and lower Bollinger band: 4.05. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (4.05) without activating the order (4.27), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Forex - USD/PLN
Poland reported the arrival of 2.5 million refugees from Ukraine. Will the growth of USDPLN quotes continue?
The upward movement means the Polish zloty weakens against the US dollar. The arrival of a large number of Ukrainian refugees can have a negative impact on the Polish economy. However, the decision of the Polish Central Bank may become a more important short-term factor. On April 6, the next meeting of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will take place. Opinions of market participants are divided, some of them expect an increase in its rate from the current level of 3.5% to 4%. This may be facilitated by the rise in pre-inflation in March to 10.9% y/y (the highest since 1998). However, some investors do not rule out a reduction in the rate to 3.25%, as its current level may already slow down the growth of the economy. In March 2022, the Poland Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since February 2021 at 52.7 points. Recall that on March 8 this year, NBP raised the rate immediately from 2.75% to 3.5%.
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