The Fed Holds Steady, Yields Keep Climbing, and Big Tech Has a Big Week: Weekly Market Overview - 3.8.2026

AUD/USD is trading around 0.70, holding up well. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been one of the more hawkish central banks this year, and that's giving the currency support. Australia's inflation also came in cooler than expected in June, which took some pressure off the RBA to keep hiking, but it's still expected to stay firm relative to peers. The RBA's own policy statement is due out Thursday, so that'll be one to watch.

EUR/GBP is trading near 0.855, close to the strong end of its range for the year. The Bank of England's rate sits well above the ECB's, about a 150 basis point gap -  keeps sterling attractive. The BoE announces its own rate decision this Thursday, which could shake things up depending on how hawkish or dovish they sound.

EUR/USD trading around 1.14 and struggling to hold above its short term moving averages. A firmer US dollar, thanks to the Fed's hawkish tilt, has been capping any real euro upside. Most analysts see it drifting lower still, with some forecasts calling for it to test 1.13 by year end.

USD/JPY has been sitting in the 160-163 range, and Japan's Ministry of Finance is suspected to have quietly stepped into the market last week to prop up the yen. Traders are bracing for the possibility of another intervention. The Bank of Japan meets this week too, and given that it's been slowly normalizing policy with rate hikes, any surprise there could move this pair a lot.

ASX 200 has quietly been one of the better performers, sitting around 8,976 and acting as something of a safe haven while tech-heavy markets elsewhere got choppy. Cooler inflation data and a calmer RBA tone helped, along with solid updates from the big mining companies.

Dow Jones closed out July at 52,485, up about 1% for the week and notching its fourth straight month of gains. Amazon and Alphabet did the heavy lifting, while Apple and Boeing dragged.

GB 100 (FTSE 100) finished around 10,868, essentially flat on the week. It's been a quieter market compared to the swings in the US and Asia, with investors there mostly waiting on the Bank of England's decision this week.

Nasdaq had a strong week, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at 25,373, up roughly 1.6%. That said, for the month of July overall, the Nasdaq was actually down over 3%, so there's been real volatility under the surface, especially around chip and AI-related companies.

Nikkei 225 closing near 64,362, up more than 4% on the week. Cooling geopolitical fears and a weaker yen which are good for Japanese exporters, have both been driving the rally.

S&P 500 closed at 7,489, up 0.7% on Friday alone and about 1% for the week. Earnings season has genuinely impressed so far, with roughly 85% of companies beating expectations and profit growth tracking near 47% year over year, which is a big number.

Brent has been on a rollercoaster because of the Iran situation. Brent spiked as high as $90 a barrel during the worst of the tension, then eased back down toward the mid-$80s once Trump said he wasn't planning new strikes. Expect Brent to stay jumpy depending on how the Hormuz situation develops.

WTI Oil followed the same pattern, swinging between the high $70s and mid-$80s over the past couple weeks. It's currently sitting at mid $80s range after cooling off from the recent spike.

Bitcoin closed out July around $62,800, still down almost 50% from its peak last October. Technical indicators suggest it might be entering a bottoming phase, though that historically can take a while to play out. This week brings a heavy mix of economic data plus a chunk of S&P 500 earnings, both of which could easily move crypto prices given how correlated they've become with broader risk sentiment.

Ethereum is trading near $1,865 and still up around 40% for the year, way ahead of Bitcoin and most other big coins. That said, it's lost some momentum recently after failing to hold above its recovery trendline, so it's sitting at a bit of a decision point too.