Today the inflation data for May will be released in the United States. - 13.6.2023

On Monday, the US dollar index continued its sluggish rise. There were no particular reasons for this. The United States Federal Budget deficit in May (-$240.3 billion) turned out to be larger than expected, but still far from the record levels of 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This morning, the United Kingdom Employment Change for the 3-month period was published. It turned out to be better than expected. British unemployment decreased to 3.8% in April from 4%. This contributed to the strengthening of the pound. The Australian dollar also slightly strengthened this morning due to a positive consumer confidence indicator (Westpac Consumer Sentiment). The euro exchange rate reached a 4-week high this morning in anticipation of the publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator in Germany and the Eurozone. Their forecasts are positive. In addition, investors are expecting a 0.25% interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (currently at 3.75%) at the meeting on June 15.

Bitcoin quotes are currently experiencing slight growth and are slightly above $26,000. Market participants are monitoring the legal proceedings between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase.

Yesterday, the American stock indexes continued to rise. The Dow increased for the fifth consecutive day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached their highest levels since April 2022. Oracle Corporation's stock soared by 6% and reached a historical high in anticipation of the release of its interim report. Good growth was demonstrated by Amazon (+2.5%), Apple (+1.6%), and Tesla (+2.2%). Biogen's stock rose by 1.5% due to successful trials of the drug Leqembi for Alzheimer's disease. JPMorgan raised its recommendations for Carnival Corporation's stock, resulting in a 12.5% increase.

Today, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May will be published. According to forecasts, it is expected to decrease to +4.1% YoY from +4.9% YoY in April. This would be the lowest level since March 2021. The potential decrease in inflation is having a positive impact on the stock market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate at the current level of 5.25% at the meeting on June 14 is 75.8%.

On Monday, oil prices declined for the third consecutive day. The reason behind this was investors' hopes that Iran would increase oil exports if a successful "nuclear deal" is reached with Western countries. This deal entails the lifting of Western economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for adjustments to its nuclear energy development program. Additionally, market participants do not believe that Russia will actually reduce oil production despite its statements. Today, data on yuan lending by the People's Bank of China for new loans in May will be released. These data can impact not only the Chinese currency exchange rate but also the dynamics of oil and other commodity prices.

Natural gas in Europe on the ICE Dutch TTF is trading around $335 per 1,000 cubic meters for the second day. The quotes for American gas at the Henry Hub rose to $2.325 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu).