US and UK markets reopen today - 30.5.2017

Trump tweets about tax plan progress and increasing healthcare spending

US markets will open today after the Memorial Day holiday. The dollar continued the rebound on Monday: the live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, inched up 0.1% to 97.544. US stocks ended slightly higher head of the long weekend. S&P 500 edged up 0.03% settling at new record high 2415.82. The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 0.01% to 21080.28. The Nasdaq composite index added 0.08% closing at fresh record high 6210.19.

No major economic reports came out on Monday while president Trump tweeted 10 times late Sunday. In one of the tweets he suggests “we add more dollars to Healthcare and make it the best anywhere.” The message contradicts his budget proposal which calls for cutting $616 billion in future Medicaid spending, $250 billion in spending cuts through the Obamacare repeal and does not include any new health-care spending. Another tweet Sunday said his tax reform plan “is moving along in the process very well, actually ahead of schedule.” This is also controversial since no tax plan has been formally submitted to Congress, just a single page outline has been released with no details. Today at 14:30 CET April Personal Income, Spending and Consumption Expenditure will be released in US. The tentative outlook is positive for the dollar. At 15:00 CET March S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index will be published, the outlook is negative. At 16:00 CET May Consumer Confidence by Conference Board will come out, the outlook is negative.

Bank stocks lead European equities lower

European stock indices ended mixed on Monday in thin trading as UK markets were closed for a public holiday. The euro extended losses against the dollar while the British Pound rebounded as the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said the euro-zone economy still needs a "fairly substantial amount" of monetary stimulus. The Stoxx Europe 600 index slipped 0.031%. The DAX 30 closed 0.2% higher at 12628.95. France’s CAC 40 lost less than 0.1% while UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed gaining 0.4% to 7547.63.

Financial shares led the losses. Draghi acknowledged the euro-zone economy is picking up but said that core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, was still too weak. He said policy makers are convinced “an extraordinary amount of monetary policy support” is still necessary. The ECB conducts an ultra-loose monetary policy which includes subzero interest rates and a 60 billion euros ($67 billion) a month bond-purchase program. The next ECB policy meeting is next week and ECB policymakers are expected to say risks to the economic outlook are no longer predominantly negative in light of recent positive economic data. Today France’s first quarter GDP came out at 0.4%, instead of an expected 0.3% pace of the previous period. At 14:00 CET May preliminary inflation will be published in Germany. The outlook is negative for euro.

GB 100

Asian stocks mixed on increased Greece uncertainty

Asian stock indices are mixed today as investor confidence was undermined by a report Athens may forego its next bailout payment if creditors cannot strike a debt relief deal. Euro zone finance ministers failed to agree with the International Monetary Fund on Greek debt relief or to release new loans to Athens last week. They are meeting again in June. Nikkei ended 0.02% lower at 19677.85 today with yen extending gains against the dollar as demand for haven assets picked up. Yen got a boost from positive data too: retail sales rose 3.2% in April from a year earlier lifted by improved automobiles and textiles sales. Markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed for the Dragon Boat Festival. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index is up 0.1% buoyed by higher bank stocks on bargain hunting as Australian dollar slipped against the greenback despite better than expected recovery in building approvals in April.

Oil down on oversupply concerns

Oil futures prices are declining today on concerns about continuing global oversupply. Analysts of US bank Goldman Sachs said that oil prices could come under pressure again from 2018 due to rising US and OPEC production. Prices rose on Monday on hopes OPEC will succeed in bringing down inventories as the summer driving season started in US with the Memorial Day holiday. Baker Hughes data indicating the number of rigs added last week was the lowest so far this year also buoyed traders’ optimism. July Brent crude gained 0.3% to settle at $52.29 a barrel on Monday on London’s ICE Futures exchange.