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기술적 분석 USDCNH : 2021-02-24

Recommendation for USD/CNH:

Buy
강한 판매SellNeutralBuy강 Buy

Above 6,5

Buy Stop

Below 6,36

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1717
IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Buy
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, USDCNH: D1 approached the resistance line of the long-term upward channel. It must be broken upward before opening a position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if USDCNH: D1 rises above the upper Bollinger band: 6.5. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place astop loss below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger band and the last lower fractal: 6.36. After opening a pending order, we can move the stop loss to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (6.36) without activating the order (6.5), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

The PRC Foreign Ministry announced its intention to resume dialogue with the USA. Will the USDCNH quotes grow ?

The upward movement means weakening of the renminbi against the American dollar. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on the US authorities to restore the bilateral dialogue, which had almost ceased under the previous administration. Former American President Donald Trump’s main demand was to change the terms of trade so that China would reduce its trade surplus with the US. In particular, duties on Chinese goods were increased. The USA demanded to increase purchases of American food and other products, and China retaliated. All this was called the "American-Chinese Trade War". As a result, China’s trade surplus with the US rose by 7.1% in 2020 compared to 2019 and amounted to $316.9 billion, while mutual trade turnover fell by almost 15%. Perhaps some new initiatives by the Chinese authorities will help solve this "American problem". The decline in the trade surplus may contribute to the USDCNH correction. Note that tno significant economic data are due out in China this week.

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