This morning, a meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took place - 16.6.2023

On Thursday, the US dollar index continued its decline. This was due to weak economic data, which may reduce the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve on July 26. In May, Industrial Production grew by only 0.2% year-on-year, lower than expected. The increase in weekly jobless claims exceeded forecasts, with the United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Average reaching its highest level since August of last year at 246.75 thousand. United States Retail Sales for May (+0.3% month-on-month) were better than expected but had no positive impact on the US currency.

As expected, on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the interest rate by 0.25% from the current level of 3.75% to 4% (a 22-year high). This caused a strong rise in EURUSD, while the euro's strengthening against the British pound, Swiss franc, and other currencies was minimal. This may have been influenced by weak external trade data for the European Union in April. Today, the final inflation data for May will be released in the EU, and it is likely to match the preliminary estimate of +6.1% year-on-year.

This morning, a meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took place as expected, and it maintained a negative interest rate of -0.1%. This led to a noticeable weakening of the yen. This morning, NZDUSD is slightly declining after the publication of the New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index, which was worse than forecasted.

Bitcoin prices rose yesterday and are currently around $25,500. The large investment company BlackRock has filed an application to create a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin. If approved by the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission, this fund could become the largest in the United States.

Yesterday, US stock quotes showed significant growth following the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates (5.25%) on June 14. Stocks of Microsoft Corporation (+3.2%) and Meta Platforms Inc (+3.1%) benefited from increased demand. Investors are hopeful about the increased demand for Microsoft Azure AI, an artificial intelligence program. Shares of healthcare companies CVS Health Corp (+4.3%), Zoetis Inc (+3.5%), and UnitedHealth (+1.7%) rose in anticipation of an increase in the number of scheduled clients after the final easing of quarantine measures due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Quotes of oil companies Coterra Energy (+3.4%), APA (+3%), and Marathon Oil (+2.1%) increased along with oil prices. Due to the decrease in interest rates by the People's Bank of China, American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of Chinese companies traded in the US, such as Alibaba (+3.2%) and JD (+3.4%), saw an increase. Today, the preliminary University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index for June will be published, and the forecast is positive.

On Thursday, oil prices increased. Brent has once again risen above the psychological level of $75 per barrel. The support level can be considered around $71 per barrel. The main positive factor was investors' expectations of increased demand in China following the interest rate reduction by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), as well as the growth in oil processing volumes at Chinese refineries in May by 15.4% year-on-year. By the way, the PBOC rate reduction also contributed to an increase in copper prices.

Natural gas in Europe on the ICE Dutch TTF corrected downwards to $395 per 1000 cubic meters. American gas prices at Henry Hub rose to $2.575 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu). In the US, there has been an increased demand for electricity for air conditioning due to hot weather. Natural gas is actively used for power generation purposes.