US inflation data to be released today - 13.10.2022

Yesterday, the US dollar index fell slightly on mixed economic data. FOMC Minutes were positive as the Fed plans further monetary tightening. At the same time, the United States Producer Price Index turned out to be weak and rose by 8.5% y/y in September. This is noticeably worse than expected. The poor performance of industrial inflation forced investors to be cautious ahead of today's publication of consumer inflation (United States Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition to it, data on the US labor market for the week (Initial Jobless Claims) will be released today. In August, inflation in the US amounted to +8.3 % y/y and decreased for the 2nd month in a row from a 40-year high of +9.1% y/y, which was in July. Further reduction in CPI to +8% and below could be positive for the US currency. In Japan today another negative statistic was released in the morning. Industrial inflation (Bank of Japan Corporate Goods Price Index) continued to increase in September, reaching a maximum for 41 years and amounted to +9.7%.However, there was almost no market reaction. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on the possibility of decisive action in support of the exchange rate.

Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range below $20,000. Investors reacted negatively to hacker activity in the crypto market. According to Chainalysis, in October 2022, the total amount of hacker hacks (blockchain-based hacks) reached $718 million. Note that for the entire 2021, the loss of the crypto industry due to hacker activity amounted to about $3 billion.

On Wednesday, US stock indices fell. Investors did not react to the good quarterly results of soft drinks producer PepsiCo (+4.2%). They fear a further increase in the Fed's rate. According to FOMC Minutes, in 2023 it can reach 4.6% and remain at this level for many months. Now the Fed rate is 3.25%. American aluminum producer Alcoa (+5.3%) can be noted among yesterday's growth leaders. The growth of its shares is due to the possible restriction of imports of Russian aluminum to the United States due to economic sanctions against Russia. Now this issue is being considered by the US authorities. Pharmaceutical company Moderna soared 8.3% on its announcement of a successful new cancer drug. Quarterly reports from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, Walgreens Boots Alliance and other corporations will be released today in the US.

Yesterday, oil quotes fell for the 3rd day in a row. The independent American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in US oil inventories for the week, which amounted to +7.05 million barrels. This is the highest since April this year. In addition, investors are counting on a quick elimination of the accident at the Druzhba oil pipeline in Poland. Now oil is rising in price ahead of the publication of official data on its stocks in the US for the week. U.S. The Energy Department and OPEC have cut their forecast for an increase in global oil demand in 2022 and 2023. Now investors fear a negative reaction from oil-producing countries. Recall that earlier OPEC + reduced production by 2 million barrels per day just in response to weak global demand.