取引機会 : 週 08-12-2025 - 12-12-2025

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s final interest rate call of the year is coming up. Markets strongly expect the RBA to keep rates on hold at 3.60%, about a 94% chance of no change. Because this is almost fully priced in, the real market mover will be the tone of the RBA’s statement and clues about 2026 policy.

Hold Is Expected because inflation in Australia is still sticky, sitting near the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target range. The economy has also been more resilient than expected, and while the job market has softened a bit, it’s still tighter than the RBA would like. This combination makes a rate pause the most likely outcome.

What Analysts Expect the RBA to Say

Most major banks think the RBA will stick to a cautious, data-dependent position. Inflation hasn’t cooled enough for the Bank to consider cuts anytime soon, and many analysts now expect the first rate cut to come mid 2026 at the earliest.

But there’s also a chance the RBA leans slightly hawkish by reminding markets that it could raise rates again if inflation worsens.

How AUDUSD Might React

AUDUSD has been trading around 0.65–0.66, and the tone of the RBA statement will likely drive the move:

1. Neutral Hold (Most Likely)
If the RBA holds rates and the statement is balanced, the market reaction should be limited. You may see some intraday volatility, but the pair will probably stay within the recent range.

2. Hawkish Hold (AUDUSD Bullish)
If the RBA stresses inflation risks or hints at possible future hikes, AUDUSD could rally. A clear break above 0.6600 becomes more likely.

3. Dovish Hold or Surprise Cut (AUDUSD Bearish)
If the RBA sounds worried about the economy or hints at earlier rate cuts, AUDUSD would likely drop. A move below 0.6500 could open the door toward 0.6400.