- マーケット分析
- 市場概観
Iran war 2026: Impact on Brent Crude and WTI Oil Prices - 3.2 日
今日の市場の概要
- The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure
- The crypto market is currently enduring a deep crypto winter.
- The global equity rally showed some signs of exhaustion
- Oil markets are entering March with significant upward momentum
- Gold is currently trading near $5,278/oz
トップ・ニュース
Markets are waiting for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which will dictate the Federal Reserve's next move. Additionally, markets are digesting recent U.S. trade policy disruptions, specifically a 15% blanket global tariff that has kept volatility elevated. In Asia, all eyes are on China’s "Two Sessions" meetings starting Wednesday, where new economic targets and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be released.
FX市場のニュース
The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, hovering near the 97.90 level as traders price in a 60% probability of a Fed rate cut in March.
- AUDUSD: The Aussie remains a top pick for many analysts. It is supported by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and steady commodity prices. Bias: Moderately Bullish with targets toward 0.7150.
- EURGBP: This pair is seeing some consolidation. While the ECB remains steady, the British Pound is facing obstacles from UK political uncertainty and expectations of a BoE rate cut.
- EURUSD: The Euro is in a cautious bullish phase. While it hit resistance near 1.1840, analysts see it as range bound until the NFP data provides a clearer dollar direction.
- USDJPY: Volatility is high here, speculation of BoJ rate hike, and verbal intervention from Japan’s Finance Ministry are keeping the Yen strong.
株式市場のニュース
| オーストラリア200種株価指数 | --- | --- | --- |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (30), 株価指数 | --- | --- | --- |
| 英国株価指数 | --- | --- | --- |
| Nasdaq (100), 株価指数 | --- | --- | --- |
| Nikkei (225), 株価指数 | --- | --- | --- |
| Standard & Poor’s (500), 株価指数 | --- | --- | --- |
The global equity rally showed some signs of exhaustion late last week, but the long term structural bull market remains the consensus among major firms like Evercore ISI and Morgan Stanley.
- ASX 200 - Bullish - Just hit a new record; miners are leading the charge.
- Dow Jones - Positive - Analysts see a rotation into "value" stocks as rates ease.
- Nasdaq - Cautious - AI-driven gains are facing some "valuation fatigue.
- Nikkei 22 - Strong - Poised to outperform due to corporate earnings and BoJ policy.
- S&P 500 - Steady - Analysts maintain a 12-month target of roughly 7,750.
商品市場のニュース
Oil markets are entering March with significant upward momentum. Prices rallied sharply following U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. Analysts at Capital Economics note that even if strikes remain limited, Brent could quickly reach $80/bbl. However, a prolonged conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could see prices skyrocket toward $100–$140/bbl.
- Brent Crude: Trading at $77.09. The global benchmark has surged from $61 at the start of the year, recently hitting a 7 month high.
- WTI Crude: Trading at $71. U.S. crude is testing key resistance levels near $75, driven by a combination of tight positioning and regional instability.
金市場のニュース
| 金 | --- | --- | --- |
Gold is currently trading near $5,278/oz. Gold has been the star performer of early 2026, driven by central bank buying. J.P. Morgan analysts believe the trend is not exhausted, with a long-term target of $5,000–$6,000/oz.
クリプト
| Bitcoin/USD | --- | --- | --- |
| Ethereum / USD | --- | --- | --- |
The crypto market is currently enduring a deep crypto winter.
- Bitcoin (BTC):Trading near $66,000. It recently dropped below the $65k mark, triggering liquidations. Analysts say it must hold the $62,000 support level to avoid a slide toward $60k.
- Ethereum (ETH): Trading around $1,900. ETH is down significantly from its 2025 peaks. While bulls expect a "thaw" soon, the current sentiment remains defensive amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
