Panoramica di Mercato

Markets are reacting after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the current emergency tariffs. Soon after, the White House proposed a new flat 10% global tariff.
Investors expect a very large move (about 8% up or down) before Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues are also important. If the talks succeed, oil could fall by $5 - $10; if they fail, prices will stay higher because markets will keep adding a safety buffer for geopolitical risk.

Over the weekend, President Trump suggested that a workable deal with Iran could happen. That reduced fears of war, which had been pushing market prices higher. In the U.S., Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve is making investors think interest rates could stay higher for longer. This week is also important for economic data, especially Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which could strongly affect markets.

The biggest news this week came from the U.S. capital. After a week of threats regarding tariffs on Europe and the Greenland deal, President Trump appears to have softened his stance (it’s the same approach all over again - threaten with something horrible then change your mind and suggest something less vile and somehow everybody is okay with it). However, the focus has quickly shifted to Canada, with new threats of 100% tariffs surfacing over their potential trade deals with China (death by a thousand paper cuts - slow erosion of democratic values and institutions, often through escalating changes that go unnoticed until significant damage has been done).

On the U.S front, PCE came in at 2.8% for the year, which is still above the government's 2% target. Because of this, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to wait until June or September to start cutting interest rates

Much has happened in recent days: the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US troops. The Greenland issue has also resurfaced, as has the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. 
Regarding economic data, everyone is preparing for the upcoming US inflation report, which will likely determine whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates later this month.

Markets are ending 2025 on a positive note, fueled by the Santa rally. The main growth in company stocks is based on artificial intelligence and better investor confidence.
The US has strengthened its naval blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, raising new potential concerns over oil supplies. Japan's central bank cut interest rates to their highest level in 30 years, but the yen remains weak. And if exchange rate fluctuations become too sharp, Japanese officials may intervene.

​The most important news of the week centered around expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week. Fed will likely deliver a third consecutive rate cut. A secondary but also important news is the continued boom in AI related investment, which helped the technology sector show strong gains globally. However, this growth is shadowed by concerns over sticky inflation and the sustainability of record U.S. fiscal deficits.

Global central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, are signaling that interest rates will remain high for a longer time. This will make borrowing more expensive for governments and businesses, leading to slower global economic growth and fundamentally lowering the valuation of many companies over the long run. 
At the same time, the stock market's performance is increasingly dominated by a few huge tech companies tied to the AI investment boom. While AI promises massive productivity gains, its high concentration creates a significant long-term risk: if these stocks fail to meet extremely high profit expectations, the entire market faces a severe correction.

This week, investors around the world became more careful and less willing to take risks. The U.S. stock markets ended lower, mostly due to concerns about the high prices of tech stocks. The ongoing longest ever U.S. government shutdown also weighed heavily on sentiment, causing worries about economic data and growth.

In other news:

• The Bank of England held its main interest rate steady in a close vote (5-4), suggesting that financial help for the economy might not happen soon, which hurt the overall market feeling for riskier assets.
• OPEC+ agreed to slightly increase oil production for December, but the general outlook is that supply is still well managed.
• Cryptocurrencies had a tough time, with big drops for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a downturn in that market.

OPEC+ surprised the market by pausing its planned oil output increases for the first quarter of 2026. That decision pushed oil prices a bit higher and added some nervousness about supply and geopolitics. At the same time, markets are watching central-bank comments, especially from the Fed and BOJ that are keeping the dollar strong and moving stocks.

U.S. inflation (CPI) for September surprised to the downside for many forecasters, headline and core CPI both printed about 3.0% year on year. That pushed markets to price a near 2 bp Fed cut at the Oct. 29 meeting. At the same time, the White House announced that President Trump will meet Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC in Seoul on Oct. 30. New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s big oil firms (Rosneft and Lukoil) also shocked the oil market and lifted crude prices. Markets are now watching Fed wording, the Trump–Xi meeting, and oil-supply headlines for the next big moves.