fbTechnická analýza USDCAD | Weak statistics and oil quotes correction may weaken the Canadian dollar | IFCM Čeština

Technická analýza USDCAD : 2020-09-22

Recommendation USD/CAD:

Buy
Silný ProdatSellNEUTRALBuySilné Koupit

výše 1,333

Buy Stop

níže 1,299

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Články 1646
IndicatorVALUESignal
RSI NEUTRAL
MACD Buy
MA(200) NEUTRAL
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD: D1 exceeded the downtrend resistance line. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not exclude a bullish movement if USDCAD rises above the upper Bollinger band: 1.333. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger band and the last two lower fractals: 1.299. After opening a pending order, we can move the stop loss to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (1.299) without activating the order (1.333), it is recommended to delete the order: some internal changes in the market have not been taken into account.

Fundamentální analýza

The Canadian economy is showing signs of slowing recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Will the USDCAD quotes rise?

The upward movement means the weakening of the Canadian dollar. At the end of last week data on retail sales and ADP's negative data on the labor market were released in Canada. The number of jobs in August fell for the 6th month in a row (-205.4 thousand). Retail sales in Canada increased by 0.6% in July. This is much less than the 22.7% growth in June. No significant Canadian macroeconomic data is expected this week. However, the emerging correction in world oil prices may support the sliding of the Canadian dollar. Oil is getting cheaper in anticipation of increased production in Libya, as well as amid the increase in the number of new coronavirus cases worldwide. This may strengthen quarantine measures in some countries and weaken global demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes a 13% decline in current US oil demand compared to 2019, and a 20% decrease in motor fuel demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a drop in the total global oil consumption in 2020 to 91.7 million barrels per day from 100.1 million in 2019. At the same time, according to the IEA, the recovery of global demand to last year's level may occur no earlier than 2023.

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