#C-LCATTLE Price Forecast | Lower beef supply bullish for live cattle price | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-LCATTLE : 2020-06-25

Recommendation for Live Cattle :

Buy
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 98.78

Buy Stop

Below 94.06

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1558
IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Neutral
MACD Neutral
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-LCATTLE: D1 is retracing toward the 200-day moving average MA(200), which has leveled off. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 98.78. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 94.06. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (94.06) without reaching the order (98.78) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

USDA reported a drop in frozen US beef inventory. Will the lcattle resume rising?

US frozen beef supplies suffered a steep drop last month according to the US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) monthly report released a couple of days ago. The total amount of beef in freezers was recorded at 415.221 million pounds, down 64.235 million, or 13.4%, from 479.456 million the previous month. Lower supply is bullish for the live cattle price. However, US cattle ranchers experience a massive backlog even as many slaughterhouses come back online with meat production recovering after a drop because of shutdowns of slaughterhouses and processing plants due to coronavirus outbreak. Thus, processors killed an estimated 119,000 cattle last Friday, up from 115,000 cattle a week earlier. Increasing production is a downside risk for the live cattle price.

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