fb#C-RICE Price Forecast | Declining Vietnam exports bearish signal for rice price | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-RICE : 2020-09-16

Recommendation for Rough Rice:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 12.07

Sell Stop

Above 12.60

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1590
RSI Neutral
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-RICE: Daily has breached the support line and is retracing down under the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is flat. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 12.07. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the last fractal high at 12.60. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (12.60) without reaching the order (12.07), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Declining Vietnam exports signal weaker rice demand. Will the rice price continue retreating?

Vietnam has become the second largest rice exporter in the world this year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam reported rice exports volume in the first six months of 2020 totaled 3.54 million tons, amounting to a 5.6% increase compared with the same period last year. However the export volume in the first eight months of the year decreased by 1.7% to 4.5 million tons compared with the same period last year. Falling exports of the second largest rice exporter in the world signal a weakening of demand. Weaker export demand is bearish for rice price.

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