Technical Analysis USDCAD : 2015-02-04

ADP Non-Farm

Today at 14:45 CET ADP Non-Farm Employment Change indicator will be issued in the US. The index is provided by Automatic Data Processing every month and is based on reckoning anonymous data of about 400 000 American business clients. Agriculture and government sectors are not included in the filing. The preliminary estimate is announced 2 days ahead of official Non-Farm Employment Change release. That is why the indicator deserves a closer look. Employment is a key factor, affecting consumer demand in the USA; a worse-than-expected decline in Non-Farm Employment Change is likely to pull down the American currency. We recall that Canada’s Ivey PMI will become public today at 16:00 CET. A survey among 175 purchasing managers from different economy sectors evaluates employment, production, new orders, prices, supply and reserves. This indicator estimates expansion or contraction in production together with purchasing managers’ activity. The USD/CAD currency pair is expected to become more volatile after the data publication.


Let us consider the USD/CAD:H4 chart. After leaving the triangle, the price crossed the H4 resistance line. At the moment we observe a pullback as oil prices sagged: reduced number of US oil wells and strike of several trade unions resulted in crude oil rally. Yet, $50-55 a barrel keep 80% percent of American oil pumps cost efficient, so we expect a downward movement to be on the way. Bullish momentum will be continued if 1.28112 fractal resistance is breached; you may place a long pending order at this mark. However, we advise you to keep an eye on the RSI-Bars oscillator, which latest bar broke through the support line. Conservative traders are recommended to wait until the price is back into the bullish trend corridor. Stop loss may be placed at the previous resistance level, which can be now considered as the support line – 1.22514. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered.

Buy stopabove 1.28112
Stop lossbelow 1.22514


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