#C-WHEAT Price Forecast | Wheat production may decline in EU | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-WHEAT : 2020-06-01

Recommendation for Wheat :

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 524

Buy Stop

Below 494

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1572
RSI Neutral
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, Wheat: D1 returned to a long-term uptrend and at the same time went up from the downward channel. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for a further increase. We do not exclude a bullish movement if Wheat rises above its last upper fractal: 524. This level can be used as an entry point. We can set a stop loss below the Parabolic signal and the last 2 lower fractals: 494. After opening the pending order, we move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the trend. If the price meets the stop level (494) without activating the order (524), it is recommended to delete the order: market sustains internal changes not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

The European Commission lowered its forecast for wheat crop in Europe in the 2020/21 agricultural season by 4.3 million tons to 121.5 million tons. Will Wheat quotes continue to rise?

The European Commission also reduced the forecast for wheat exports to 26.5 million tons from 28 million tons. In the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for May, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) wrote that wheat production in the European Union would reach 143 million tons in the 2020/21 season and 28 million tons in exports. As we can see, the expectations of the European Commission are much more frugal now. Note that the forecast for world wheat production this season by the International Grain Council is 766 million tons, which is 2 million tons less than the similar forecast of the USDA. All this can support wheat quotes.

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