fb#C-WHEAT Price Forecast | Lower whеat supply estimate bullish for #C-WHEAT | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-WHEAT : 2020-07-09

Recommendation for Wheat :

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 524.7

Buy Stop

Below 470

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1571
RSI Neutral
MA(50) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Donchian Channel Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-WHEAT: D1 has breached above the resistance line and 50-day moving average MA(50) which has leveled off. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 524.7. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 470. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (524.7) without reaching the order (470) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

French and Argentine wheat supply estimates were downgraded. Will the wheat price rebound continue?

2020/21 soft wheat shipments from France outside the European Union would fall 43% from 2019/20 to 7.75 million tons, the lowest in four years, according to farm office FranceAgriMer forecast. At the same time, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its 2020/21 harvest estimate in Argentine to a range of 18-19 million tons from 21-22 million previously. Lower supply estimates are bullish for wheat price. On the other hand, a higher than expected estimate for the US harvest in the Department of Agriculture monthly report due on Friday is a downside risk for Wheat.

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