Australian Employment Surprisingly Higher, Eyes on Draghi Speech - 12.12.2013

The Australian Unemployment rate released earlier on Thursday was in line with investors’ expectations at 5.8% for November. Employment increased in November by 21K, surprising market participants who have been anticipating around 10K rise in employment for November.

Despite stronger employment, the Australian dollar continued its weakening path against the US dollar. The forex pair fell as low as 0.9009 which is almost at psychological support of 0.90. Currently due to major lower barrier as well as oversold technical indicators the AUDUSD attempts to retrace higher, taking advantage of corrective mood during the intraday could be proved profitable.

AUDUSD

The kiwi against the US dollar shifted to upside bias after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its key rate at 2.50% but said that inflation pressures increase and the bank will increase its rate in order to keep inflation near 2% target. As a virtue of that the NZDUSD turned positive creating a hammer candle at the bottom and rising by 1.0% from 0.8200 to 0.8280. We would expect the bullish bias to continue towards cap at 0.8331 and then rise above that based on up trend line.

NZDUSD

Elsewhere, the US dollar index remains near its 6-week lows at 79.81, while risk appetite worsens due to speculation mounting regarding Fed asset tapering to start next week that is more likely after a modest US budget deal. The Euro hold its rising momentum against the US dollar inching to 6-week high at 1.3800, slightly below 2-year peak at 1.3831. Euro strengthens ahead of Mario Draghi speech at the European parliament as well as Industrial production data estimated to show a recover. Lastly, the USDCHF declined to a two week trough at 1.0576 ahead of SNB monetary policy assessment.

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