The U.S. Dollar index was strengthened on Monday on the positive macroeconomic data - 4.3.2014

On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index (USDIDX) strengthened due to the positive macroeconomic data. The ISM PMI manufacturing rose in February to 53.2 points after it was on eight-month low in January. The Index growth exceeded the forecasts. The consumer spending in January rose by 0.4%, which is also much better than expected. It is almost two-thirds of the U.S. GDP. Previously, on the basis of weak economic data investors could assume that the Fed will pause in reducing the redemption of government bonds at its next meeting on March 19. Now, they believe that the reduction may still take place due to the strong ISM manufacturing. More accurate predictions of the Fed's actions are to appear after the important U.S. labor market data release on March 7. No major macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. are expected for today.

The Japanese Yen demonstrated attenuation (growth on the USDJPY chart) after the announcement of the BOJ head, Haruhiko Kuroda that major Japanese investors should limit the volume of carry trade transactions. Market participants interpreted this as "verbal intervention" in favor of weakening the Japanese currency.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates at 2.5% as expected. Such decision supported the Australian Dollar (growth on the AUDUSD chart). Tomorrow night at 00-30 GMT the Australian GDP in the fourth quarter is to be released. The preliminary forecast is positive for the Aussie.

The UK manufacturing PMI for February rose yesterday more than expected. The number of mortgage approvals in January was the highest since November 2007. However, this had no noticeable effect for the Pound (GBPUSD). Investors expect the BOE meeting to be held on Thursday where it may be announced that the discount rate cannot be increased until the first half of next year. Today at 9-30 GMT, we expect the construction PMI to come out. The preliminary forecast is negative. If it is justified, the Pound could drop.

The Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) did not respond to good economic data. The PPI in December got over the preliminary forecasts. Recall that the head of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz said earlier that the increase in inflation may contribute the economic growth. Of course, this figure reflects the consumer price index, not manufacturing one; however, the trend is positive. It is due to the strong weakening of the Canadian Dollar in November - January. Tomorrow we expect the Bank of Canada meeting to take place. As a result, the discount rate is likely to be kept at the current level of 1%. However, the exchange rate may be affected by the economic projections, estimates and statements made by the authorities during the meeting.

Commodity futures prices actively respond to events concerning the conflict in Ukraine. They are largely reduced today. Vladimir Putin ordered the troops sent to the West European borders of Russia to return to permanent dislocation. Investors believe that it says about the political crisis mitigation. Russian military group is composed of more than 150 thousand soldiers and a large number of vehicles.

The Australian Agriculture Monitoring agency (ABARES) has lowered the forecast for the Wheat this season by 8.2 % to 24.8 million tons because of the drought. At the same time it expects an increase in slaughter and has raised its forecast for beef exports (Fcattle) to 1.15 million tons. Note that a herd of cattle in Australia now is 27.1 million heads and it is at its minimum since the season of 2009/10. Despite this, the country is the third largest beef exporter. We do not exclude that the increase in slaughter and the subsequent increase in production can help reducing the beef prices.