fbDJI Forecast | Better US data bullish for DJI | IFCM

Technical Analysis DJI : 2020-07-02

Recommendation for Dow Jones Index:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 26013.4

Buy Stop

Below 25512.3

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1571
RSI Neutral
MACD Neutral
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the 4-hour timeframe DJI: H4 has risen above the 200-period moving average MA(200), which is rising. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 26013.4. A level above this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 25512.3. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (25512.3) without reaching the order (26013.4), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Economic data from US are better lately than anticipated. Will the DJI rebound continue?

US economic data in the last couple of weeks were better than expected on balance. US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report yesterday showed its manufacturing index climbed to 52.6 from 43.1 in May and from an 11-year low of 41.5 in April, when a reading of 49.5 was forecast. Any reading above 50 represents an expansion in economic activity. A day before Standard & Poor's reported that the Case-Shiller house price index of selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas rose 4% on an annual basis in April when a decline to 3.8% was expected after 3.9% increase in March. And while the ISM-Chicago reported Chicago area business activity contraction continued at above-expected rate in June the contraction slowed compared with May. At the same time the Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported private sector employment added 2.37 million jobs in June, and May’s statistics was revised: instead of a loss of 2.76 million jobs the US added 3.06 million jobs! And on the monetary front Federal Reserve chair Powell pledged on Tuesday to keep doing whatever it takes to support the US economy. Better than expected economic data are bullish for DJI. On the other hand Labor Department employment report will be released today and official data painting a picture weaker than the one ADP reported is an immediate downside risk for DJI.

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