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Technical Analysis GBPUSD : 2014-12-16

Expecting red zone

Here we consider GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. As oil prices keep falling, we observe the US dollar strengthening against the most liquid currencies. The British pound is not an exception. The price is moving within the limits of D1 and H4 downtrend channel: bearish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. The trend is confirmed by ParabolicSAR values, which cross the trendline and fractal resistance level. Donchian Channel is also indicating the bearish bias. There is no contradiction on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator. At the moment, it approached the local support level at 35.3912%. We expect that this level would be crossed when the price breaks the support level at 1.55972. This mark can be used for opening a pending sell order. Stop Loss is better to be placed at the Bill Williams resistance fractal 1.57589, which is strengthened by Parabolic historical values and the bearish pattern “double top” (marked in red ellipse on the chart). We can see that the pound has been drifting sideways for almost a month. It increases the probability of volatility surge and the consolidation completion.


After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.
Sell stopbelow 1.55972
Stop lossabove 1.57589

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