NIKKEI Forecast | Technical setup bullish for Nikkei | IFCM

Technical Analysis NIKKEI : 2020-05-29

Recommendation for Nikkei Index:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 22005.50

Buy Stop

Below 19969.20

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1554
RSI Neutral
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe the Nikkei: D1 has closed above the 200-day moving average MA(200) after hitting 37-month low in mid-March. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 22005.50. A level above this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 19969.20. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (19969.20) without reaching the order (22005.50), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account

Fundamental Analysis

Japan’s government adopted fourth stimulus package in three months. Will the Nikkei rebound continue?

Japanese economic data of the last couple of weeks were mixed. Machinery orders declined less than forecast in March, while trade deficit narrowed in April. On the other hand, drops in both industrial production and retail sales were bigger than forecast in April. Thus , machinery orders declined 0.7% over year in March after 2.4% fall in February when a 9.5% drop was forecast. Trade deficit narrowed to 930 billion yen after 5.4 billion deficit in March. Industrial production fell 9.1% over year in April after 3.7% decline in March, when 5.1% fall was expected. And retail sales dropped 13.7% over year after 4.7% decline in March when 11.5% drop was expected. Weak data are downside risk for Nikkei. At the same time Japanese government announced fourth aid package to combat coronavirus damage. The $1.1 trillion stimulus package was announced on Wednesday May 27. It includes rent subsidies for individuals as well as small and medium sized businesses; a one-time $1,860 payment to each front-line medical worker and increased subsidies to businesses hit by the pandemic. The stimulus measures boosting government spending and subsidies are bullish for Nikkei.

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