fb#C-ORANGE Price Forecast | Lower crop estimate bullish for orange price | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-ORANGE : 2020-11-25

Recommendation for Orange Juice:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 128.52

Buy Stop

Below 116.23

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1643
RSI Neutral
MACD Neutral
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe the ORANGE: D1 is rising above the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is rising itself. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 128.52. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 116.23. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (116.23) without reaching the order (128.52) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Global orange crop for 2019-2020 season is down from 2018/19. Will the orange prices continue rising?

Orange juice is rebounding following a retreat after hitting a 7-month low eight weeks ago. Demand for orange juice remains strong as COVID-19 cases continue growing worldwide with consumers viewing its nutrients and high vitamin C content as a means to boost human immune system. At the same time the forecast for the 2019/20 season of global orange production (fresh market sales as well as processing) is down from 2018/19 production of 53.2 million tons to about 47.5 million tons. European major production of orange juice stands 5.8 million tons. And global orange juice production is down from 1.7 million to about 1.6 million tons, according to IHS Markit, declining for third consecutive season. Lower supply estimates are bullish for orange price.

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