Technical Analysis #C-RICE : 2020-02-26


Strong Sell
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 13.32

Sell Stop

Above 13.9

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
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RSI Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily time-frame, RICE: D1 broke down an uptrend support line. Now it’s moving down from its maximum since July 2014. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for a further decrease. We do not rule out a bearish movement if RICE falls below the lower Bollinger line: 13.32. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop loss can be placed below the last upper fractal, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 13.9. After opening the pending order, we move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal maximum. So, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, more risk-averse traders can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, correcting it in the accordance with the trend. If the price overcomes the stop level (13.9) without activating the order (13.32), it is recommended to close the position: market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

India and Vietnam reported an increase in rice yield. Will RICE quotes move down?

India is the world's largest rice exporter and the 2nd largest producer after China. The Ministry of Agriculture of India (Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare) awaits a rice harvest in the 2019/2020 season in the amount of 117.5 million tons, which is 0.9% more than the previous period. This is a new historical record. The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) announced a growth in rice exports in 2019 by 4.2% to 6.4 million tons. Vietnam Food Association forecasts its further increase in 2020 as well - by another 6%. In their statement the outbreak of coronavirus had no negative impact on the Vietnamese rice shipment to China and neighboring countries. Let us remind that as the United States Department of Agriculture predicts, the global rice yield in 2020 will be approximately the same as in 2019 and will slightly exceed 496 million tons.

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