fb#C-SUGAR Price Forecast | Expected higher India exports bearish for sugar price | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-SUGAR : 2020-11-26

Recommendation for Sugar :

Neutral
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 14.3

Sell Stop

Above 15.27

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
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IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-SUGAR: Daily is retracing down toward the 200-day moving average MA(200) which has leveled off. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 14.3. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the last fractal high at 15.27. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (15.27) without reaching the order (14.3), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

India is expected to have more sugar for export in 2020/21. Will the sugar price continue falling?

India is the world’s second biggest producer of sugar after Brazil. And over 16 million tons of sugar is likely to be available for export in 2020/21, or 62% more compared with the last season. India will continue a program of providing subsidies to sugar mills to export 6 million tons of sugar in the 2020/21 season to cut surplus stocks at home and support local prices, government sources have confirmed earlier this month. And Indian sugar mills have for the first time in three years agreed to sell 10,000 tons of sugar without the support of government subsidies while the delay in government announcement of the export subsidy has helped drive global sugar prices to the highest levels in nearly nine months. And further delay is likely to compel other mills to sell more sugar for export. Expectations of higher supply are bearish for sugar price.

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