fb#C-WHEAT Price Forecast | Higher global wheat supply expectations bearish for wheat price | IFCM

Technical Analysis #C-WHEAT : 2020-09-17

Recommendation for Wheat :

Sell
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 534.3

Sell Stop

Above 556.8

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1590
IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell
Fibonacci Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe the WHEAT: D1 is falling toward the 200-day moving average MA(200) which has levelled off. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 534.3. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 556.8. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Wheat price decline continues after increased global ending stock and production forecast in WASDE. Will the wheat price continue declining?

The US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates September report a week ago forecast larger global 2020/21 supplies and higher stocks. Total 2020/21 net wheat production is now forecast at record 770.5 million bushels, up 4.5 million tons, mainly due to expected higher production in Australia and Canada. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are increased 2.6 million tons to a new record 319.4 million. Expectations of ample global wheat supply are bearish for wheat price.

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